Lazio 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lazio face Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Olimpico to face Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lazio have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lazio's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Genoa have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Lazio's favour (1.70 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Lazio, who have won 7 of the last 8 meetings against Genoa — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with Lazio winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lazio and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 28% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 31% | Genoa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.20 xG and Genoa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.030 / defence 1.075 | Genoa attack 0.885 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.224. Data: 39 Lazio games / 39 Genoa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lazio 37% | Draw 28% | Genoa 35%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Genoa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lazio are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Lazio 60% | Genoa 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 37% | Draw 28% | Genoa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Lazio 1.20 / Genoa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.030 / def 1.075 | Genoa attack 0.885 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Lazio (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Genoa xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Genoa kick off?
Lazio vs Genoa kicked off at 18:45 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Lazio 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Lazio vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Genoa part of?
Lazio vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 37% chance of winning, Genoa a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lazio and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
Record (8 meetings): Lazio 7W | Draws 0 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Lazio and Genoa in?
Lazio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lazio's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.89x) against Lazio's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.58
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.36
1.16
Genoa xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lazio and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lazio and 1.16 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lazio's recent record stands at 15W 12D 12L from 39 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 18L across 39 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 8W 6D 5L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 4W 7D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lazio are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.05 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lazio have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Genoa in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 15W 12D 12L in their last 39 games (1.46 PPG), while Genoa have gone 10W 11D 18L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Genoa away?
Lazio's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.58 PPG; Genoa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lazio or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Genoa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Lazio have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 1-4 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lazio have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Lazio
0
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Genoa?
From 9 meetings on record, Lazio have won 8, Genoa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Lazio 1-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Genoa?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 42%, Genoa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lazio) and 47% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lazio have failed to score in 32% of games; Genoa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lazio's recent matches and 58% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lazio vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lazio's recent games and 47% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lazio and Genoa tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Genoa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.20 xG and Genoa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genoa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 37% | Draw 28% | Genoa 35%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 31%, Genoa 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genoa's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.