Lazio 3-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lazio vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 37 as Lazio welcome Cremonese to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lazio's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Lazio have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lazio have won 1, Cremonese 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 4–0 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lazio trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Cremonese trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lazio 49% versus Cremonese 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lazio 60% | Cremonese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lazio 1.83 xG and Cremonese 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lazio attack 1.029 / defence 0.880 | Cremonese attack 0.861 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.173. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Lazio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Lazio games / 36 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lazio 59% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 18%. Fair-value odds: Lazio 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Cremonese 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Lazio (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Lazio 40% | Cremonese 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lazio vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lazio 59% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Lazio 1.83 / Cremonese 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Lazio attack 1.029 / def 0.880 | Cremonese attack 0.861 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Lazio (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Lazio xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Cremonese xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lazio vs Cremonese kick off?
Lazio vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in Lazio vs Cremonese?
Lazio 3 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Lazio vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is Lazio vs Cremonese part of?
Lazio vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lazio vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Lazio a 59% chance of winning, Cremonese a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lazio vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lazio and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Lazio vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Cremonese?
Record (1 meetings): Lazio 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 0W.
What form are Lazio and Cremonese in?
Lazio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lazio's attack at 1.03x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Lazio's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.34
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Lazio xG
Total xG
2.72
0.89
Cremonese xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
3%
35.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lazio vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lazio and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Lazio and 0.89 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Lazio vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lazio's recent record stands at 38W 18D 18L from 74 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 29L across 74 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cremonese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lazio have managed 20W 10D 7L from 37 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 10W 11D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lazio are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.20 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lazio
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lazio and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Lazio have gone 38W 18D 18L in their last 74 games (1.78 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 24W 21D 29L in their last 74 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lazio at home or Cremonese away?
Lazio's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lazio at home: 1.89 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Lazio or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cremonese in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lazio and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lazio's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lazio
1
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lazio and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Lazio have won 3, Cremonese have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lazio and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Cremonese 1-2 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Lazio and Cremonese?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lazio 54%, Cremonese 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Lazio) and 51% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lazio keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cremonese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lazio home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lazio play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Lazio's games and 60% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lazio vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lazio's matches and 51% of Cremonese's.
Do Lazio and Cremonese tend to score early?
Lazio have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Cremonese 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Cremonese 3-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lazio 1.83 xG and Cremonese 0.89 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lazio beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cremonese outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lazio attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.32, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lazio 59% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 18%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lazio 60%, Cremonese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lazio's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.51 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.