Juventus 1-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juventus vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventus host Torino at Allianz Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Juventus — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's home record at Allianz Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Torino have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Juventus have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Juventus's 30% rate and Torino's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Juventus have won 1, Torino 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Juventus winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Juventus in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Torino in-play tendencies (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 46% versus Torino 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventus 25% | Torino 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.19 xG and Torino 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.969 / defence 0.713 | Torino attack 0.531 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.441. Juventus's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 25 Juventus games / 24 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 49% | Draw 36% | Torino 14%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 2.04 | Draw 2.78 | Torino 7.14. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (36%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Torino's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.74 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 30% | Torino 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 49% | Draw 36% | Torino 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Juventus 1.19 / Torino 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.969 / def 0.713 | Torino attack 0.531 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Juventus (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Torino xG
32%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Torino kick off?
Juventus vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 February 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Torino?
Juventus 1 - 1 Torino.
Where is Juventus vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Torino part of?
Juventus vs Torino is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 49% chance of winning, Torino a 14% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Juventus and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Torino?
Record (1 meetings): Juventus 1W | Draws 0 | Torino 0W.
What form are Juventus and Torino in?
Juventus (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Torino (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juventus's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Torino's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 19.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (19.1%), 1-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
49%
2.02
36%
2.77
14%
6.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Juventus xG
Total xG
1.74
0.55
Torino xG
2.02
49%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
6.93
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.15
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
4%
22.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 9.6 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.0 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Juventus and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Juventus and 0.55 for Torino, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juventus's recent record stands at 13W 6D 5L from 24 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 10L across 24 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Torino heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juventus have managed 7W 2D 2L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 2W 2D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Torino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventus are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.29 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Torino in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 13W 6D 5L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Torino have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Torino away?
Juventus's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 2.09 PPG; Torino away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Juventus or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Torino in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Juventus's record when hosting Torino specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Juventus
5
Draws
0
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 5, Torino have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Torino 2-2 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Torino?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Torino see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 36%, Torino 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Juventus and 18% for Torino.
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Torino in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Juventus's recent matches and 36% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventus vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Juventus's recent games and 18% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Torino tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Torino in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus and Torino finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.19 xG and Torino 0.55 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.97 / defence 0.71 against Torino attack 0.53 / defence 1.08, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 49% | Draw 36% | Torino 14%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 25%, Torino 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.