Juventus 2-0 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventus at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Juventus welcome Inter to Allianz Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventus stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadium, Juventus have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Inter — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juventus 1.80 PPG, Inter 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Juventus, 1 for Inter and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Inter winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Juventus trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Inter trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventus 48% versus Inter 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 36% | Inter 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 2.29 xG and Inter 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 1.372 / defence 0.740 | Inter attack 1.377 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.187. Juventus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.372 — their λ of 2.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Inter bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.377 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Juventus's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Juventus games / 50 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 61% | Draw 20% | Inter 19%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Inter 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventus at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 50% | Inter 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 61% | Draw 20% | Inter 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Juventus 2.29 / Inter 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 1.372 / def 0.740 | Inter attack 1.377 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Juventus (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Inter xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs Inter kick off?
Juventus vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs Inter?
Juventus 2 - 0 Inter.
Where is Juventus vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs Inter part of?
Juventus vs Inter is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 61% chance of winning, Inter a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Juventus and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Inter?
Record (2 meetings): Juventus 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 1W.
What form are Juventus and Inter in?
Juventus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Inter (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juventus's attack at 1.37x the league average against Inter's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
61%
1.64
20%
4.93
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Juventus xG
Total xG
3.50
1.21
Inter xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.93
20%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
10%
9.90
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
2%
53.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Juventus and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Juventus and 1.21 for Inter, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Juventus have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 26W 14D 10L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 33W 9D 8L from 50 games, 2.16 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventus on 1.84 PPG, Inter on 2.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Juventus have posted 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (14W 7D 4L).
On the road, Inter have gone 14W 6D 5L from 25 away games — 1.92 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.18 scored and 0.98 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into Juventus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Inter in 60%.
Defensively: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Inter in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and Inter in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 26W 14D 10L in their last 50 games (1.84 PPG), while Inter have gone 33W 9D 8L in their last 50 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or Inter away?
Juventus's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.96 PPG; Inter away: 1.92 PPG.
Have Juventus or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Inter in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventus and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
3
Draws
3
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, Inter have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Inter 3-2 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and Inter?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventus 40%, Inter 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Juventus) and 68% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Juventus keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Juventus's games and 72% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventus vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Juventus's recent games and 68% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventus and Inter tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Inter in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventus cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Inter.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Inter 2-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 2.29 xG and Inter 1.21 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Inter landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 1.37 / defence 0.74 against Inter attack 1.38 / defence 1.24, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 61% | Draw 20% | Inter 19%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 36%, Inter 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inter's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventus 1.84 PPG, Inter 2.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.