Juventus 1-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventus vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventus host AS Roma at Allianz Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 outings — a 1.57 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.43 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventus have posted 1W 1D 1L at Allianz Stadium — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 5W 0D 2L from 7 Serie A matches — 2.14 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.29 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AS Roma — 0.57 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.14 vs 1.57). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Juventus register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, AS Roma in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Juventus in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventus 71% and AS Roma 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventus 57% | AS Roma 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventus 1.57 xG and AS Roma 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventus attack 0.955 / defence 1.130 | AS Roma attack 1.124 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.514. AS Roma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Juventus's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Juventus games / 7 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventus 32% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 46%. Fair-value odds: Juventus 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | AS Roma 2.17. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventus 67% | AS Roma 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventus vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Allianz Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventus 32% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Juventus 1.57 / AS Roma 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Juventus attack 0.955 / def 1.130 | AS Roma attack 1.124 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.514 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Juventus xG
Expected Goals
1.92
AS Roma xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventus vs AS Roma kick off?
Juventus vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Allianz Stadium.
What was the final score in Juventus vs AS Roma?
Juventus 1 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Juventus vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadium.
What competition is Juventus vs AS Roma part of?
Juventus vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Juventus a 32% chance of winning, AS Roma a 46% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Juventus and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Juventus vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AS Roma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventus and AS Roma in?
Juventus (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 5W-0D-2L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Juventus's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Juventus's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
32%
3.15
22%
4.55
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Juventus xG
Total xG
3.49
1.92
AS Roma xG
3.15
32%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
5%
21.56
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventus vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Juventus and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Juventus and 1.92 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventus vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juventus come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Juventus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Juventus's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
The Goals Picture
Juventus are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 2.29 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventus have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: AS Roma in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventus
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventus and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Juventus have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventus at home or AS Roma away?
Juventus's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventus at home: 1.33 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Juventus or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, AS Roma in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Juventus and AS Roma runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Juventus
5
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventus and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Juventus have won 4, AS Roma have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Juventus and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when AS Roma 3-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Juventus and AS Roma?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Juventus at 67%, AS Roma at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Juventus and 100% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 33%; Juventus have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventus home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventus play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Juventus's games and 67% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juventus vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Juventus's matches and 100% of AS Roma's.
Do Juventus and AS Roma tend to score early?
Juventus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juventus defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat AS Roma 1-0 at Allianz Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventus 1.57 xG and AS Roma 1.92 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventus attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against AS Roma attack 1.12 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventus 32% | Draw 22% | AS Roma 46%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Juventus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventus 57%, AS Roma 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventus's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.57. Form was overturned, with Juventus winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.