Inter 3-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inter vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Inter welcome Udinese to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inter have posted 8W 0D 2L at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Inter are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Inter, 1 for Udinese and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Udinese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Inter in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 57% versus Udinese 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 62% | Udinese 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.31 xG and Udinese 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.125 / defence 0.656 | Udinese attack 0.877 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.167. Inter's defence rating of 0.656 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Inter games / 60 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 52% | Draw 29% | Udinese 19%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Udinese 5.26. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inter 30% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 52% | Draw 29% | Udinese 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 36% | xG Inter 1.31 / Udinese 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.125 / def 0.656 | Udinese attack 0.877 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Inter (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Udinese xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Udinese kick off?
Inter vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Udinese?
Inter 3 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Inter vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Udinese part of?
Inter vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 52% chance of winning, Udinese a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Inter and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Udinese?
Record (3 meetings): Inter 2W | Draws 0 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Inter and Udinese in?
Inter (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Udinese (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Inter's attack at 1.12x the league average against Udinese's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.46
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Inter xG
Total xG
1.98
0.67
Udinese xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.1 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Inter and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Inter and 0.67 for Udinese, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inter's recent record stands at 39W 11D 10L from 60 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 18W 23D 19L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Inter have managed 23W 3D 4L from 30 games — 2.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inter are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.52 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 62%.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Udinese in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 39W 11D 10L in their last 60 games (2.13 PPG), while Udinese have gone 18W 23D 19L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Udinese away?
Inter's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.40 PPG; Udinese away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Inter or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Udinese in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inter and Udinese runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Inter
0
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 8, Udinese have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Udinese?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 43%, Udinese 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Inter) and 53% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Udinese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Inter's recent matches and 53% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inter vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Inter's matches and 53% of Udinese's.
Do Inter and Udinese tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Udinese in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Udinese 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.31 xG and Udinese 0.67 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Inter beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.12 / defence 0.66 against Udinese attack 0.88 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 52% | Draw 29% | Udinese 19%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 62%, Udinese 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Udinese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.