Inter 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Inter at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to take on Inter. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have gone 5W 2D 1L from 8 outings — a 2.12 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.88 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inter have posted 2W 1D 0L at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 4.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Juventus — All Games: 4W 2D 2L from 8 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.25. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Serie A this season (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.12 PPG (Inter) versus 1.75 (Juventus). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Inter register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Juventus in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Inter in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 88%.
Juventus in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Inter 88% and Juventus 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Inter 100% | Juventus 50%). Note also that Juventus surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Inter recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 2.31 xG and Juventus 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.483 / defence 1.057 | Juventus attack 0.956 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.487. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.483 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 Inter games / 8 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 56% | Draw 20% | Juventus 24%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Juventus 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Inter (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.82 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inter 67% | Juventus 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 56% | Draw 20% | Juventus 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 70% | xG Inter 2.31 / Juventus 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.483 / def 1.057 | Juventus attack 0.956 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: Inter (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Inter xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Juventus xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Juventus kick off?
Inter vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Juventus?
Inter 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Inter vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Juventus part of?
Inter vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 56% chance of winning, Juventus a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Inter and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Juventus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inter and Juventus in?
Inter (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.88 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Juventus (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Inter's attack at 1.48x the league average against Juventus's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
56%
1.79
20%
5.07
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Inter xG
Total xG
3.82
1.50
Juventus xG
1.79
56%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
10%
10.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
2%
41.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Inter and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Inter and 1.50 for Juventus, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Juventus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inter's recent record stands at 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, a 2.12 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 2L across 8 games — 1.75 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Inter on 2.12 PPG, Juventus on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Inter have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Inter are averaging 2.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games; Juventus in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Juventus in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 games (2.12 PPG), while Juventus have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Juventus away?
Inter's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.33 PPG; Juventus away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Inter's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Inter
3
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 3, Juventus have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Inter 3-2 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Inter at 67%, Juventus at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Inter and 67% for Juventus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Juventus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Inter's games and 67% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Inter's matches and 67% of Juventus's.
Do Inter and Juventus tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Juventus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter and Juventus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 2.31 xG and Juventus 1.50 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Inter fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.48 / defence 1.06 against Juventus attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 56% | Draw 20% | Juventus 24%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 100%, Juventus 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inter 2.12 PPG, Juventus 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.