Inter 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inter vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Giuseppe Meazza to take on Inter. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Inter's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Inter are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza than their overall form suggests.
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Inter) versus 1.50 (Fiorentina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Inter, 0 for Fiorentina and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Inter trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Fiorentina trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inter 54% versus Fiorentina 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inter 57% | Fiorentina 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inter 1.97 xG and Fiorentina 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inter attack 1.348 / defence 0.948 | Fiorentina attack 0.754 / defence 1.325. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.306. Inter carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fiorentina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.325 — this is suppressing Inter's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Inter games / 28 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inter 60% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 15%. Fair-value odds: Inter 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Fiorentina 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Inter (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Inter 40% | Fiorentina 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inter vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inter 60% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Inter 1.97 / Fiorentina 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Inter attack 1.348 / def 0.948 | Fiorentina attack 0.754 / def 1.325 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Inter (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Inter xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Fiorentina xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inter vs Fiorentina kick off?
Inter vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What was the final score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Inter 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Inter vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
What competition is Inter vs Fiorentina part of?
Inter vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Inter a 60% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Inter and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Inter vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Fiorentina?
Record (1 meetings): Inter 1W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 0W.
What form are Inter and Fiorentina in?
Inter (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Inter's attack at 1.35x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Inter's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
60%
1.68
25%
3.99
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Inter xG
Total xG
2.91
0.93
Fiorentina xG
1.68
60%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
2%
46.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Inter and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Inter and 0.93 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Inter vs Fiorentina?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Inter come into this having played 28 games, going 17W 8D 3L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (14W 4D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Inter's home form reads 10W 2D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Inter are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.68 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Inter have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inter
Current Season
Fiorentina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inter and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Inter have gone 17W 8D 3L in their last 28 games (2.11 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 14W 4D 10L in their last 28 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inter at home or Fiorentina away?
Inter's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inter at home: 2.29 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Inter or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inter have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Inter and Fiorentina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inter's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Inter
2
Draws
2
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inter and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Inter have won 6, Fiorentina have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inter and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Inter and Fiorentina?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inter 50%, Fiorentina 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Inter and 57% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Fiorentina in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inter home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inter play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Inter's games and 64% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inter vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Inter's matches and 57% of Fiorentina's.
Do Inter and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Inter have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter and Fiorentina finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inter 1.97 xG and Fiorentina 0.93 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Inter fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inter attack 1.35 / defence 0.95 against Fiorentina attack 0.75 / defence 1.32, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inter 60% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 15%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inter 57%, Fiorentina 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inter's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Fiorentina's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.