Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hellas Verona and Udinese meet at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Hellas Verona's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Udinese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Udinese in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Hellas Verona, 1 for Udinese and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hellas Verona — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Udinese — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 46% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 51% | Udinese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.33 xG and Udinese 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.895 / defence 1.367 | Udinese attack 0.951 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.135. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Hellas Verona's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Hellas Verona games / 59 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 25% | Udinese 41%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 25% | Udinese 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hellas Verona 1.33 / Udinese 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.895 / def 1.367 | Udinese attack 0.951 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Udinese (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Udinese xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Udinese kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 26 January 2026 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Hellas Verona 1 - 3 Udinese.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Udinese part of?
Hellas Verona vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 34% chance of winning, Udinese a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hellas Verona and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
Record (9 meetings): Hellas Verona 3W | Draws 5 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Udinese in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Udinese's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.95x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
34%
2.92
25%
3.97
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.81
1.48
Udinese xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.48 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona come into this having played 59 games, going 12W 15D 32L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Udinese sit at 1.19 PPG from 59 outings (19W 13D 27L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.19 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hellas Verona's home form reads 5W 8D 16L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Udinese have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (9W 6D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.07 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Udinese in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 12W 15D 32L in their last 59 games (0.86 PPG), while Udinese have gone 19W 13D 27L in their last 59 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.79 PPG; Udinese away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hellas Verona won 4-0 on 13 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hellas Verona
5
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 3, Udinese have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Hellas Verona 1-3 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Udinese?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 45%, Udinese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Hellas Verona) and 48% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 48% of games; Udinese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 62% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 48% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Udinese tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Udinese in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Hellas Verona 1-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.33 xG and Udinese 1.48 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Udinese outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.90 / defence 1.37 against Udinese attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 25% | Udinese 41%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 51%, Udinese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.86 PPG, Udinese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.