Hellas Verona 0-3 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lazio at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Lazio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Lazio travel to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona in Serie A (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Lazio have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Lazio's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lazio — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Hellas Verona have won 1, Lazio 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2024, ended Hellas Verona 1–2 Lazio — a Lazio win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lazio trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 55% versus Lazio 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 57% | Lazio 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.08 xG and Lazio 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.812 / defence 1.335 | Lazio attack 1.041 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.299. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lazio's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 58 games and Lazio's last 58.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | Lazio 53%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.78 | Draw 3.78 | Lazio 1.90. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and Lazio's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 40% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 January 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | Lazio 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hellas Verona 1.08 / Lazio 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.812 / def 1.335 | Lazio attack 1.041 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Lazio (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Lazio xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Lazio kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Hellas Verona 0 - 3 Lazio.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Lazio part of?
Hellas Verona vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 21% chance of winning, Lazio a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hellas Verona and Lazio will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hellas Verona vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.81) and Lazio's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 58 games and Lazio's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
21%
4.78
26%
3.78
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.89
1.80
Lazio xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
16%
6.08
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
3%
29.06
18%
5.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.80 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 15W 12D 31L from 58 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 29W 10D 19L across 58 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lazio by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 9W 7D 13L from their last 29 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 13W 3D 13L across their last 29 away games, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.43 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Lazio
Blended
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Hellas Verona vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Lazio in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 15W 12D 31L in their last 58 games (0.98 PPG), while Lazio have gone 29W 10D 19L in their last 58 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.17 PPG; Lazio away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 11 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lazio have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Aug 2025, when Lazio won Lazio 4-0 Hellas Verona.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
6
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 1, Lazio have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2026: Hellas Verona 0-1 Lazio.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 47% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 59%, Lazio 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Hellas Verona and 55% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Lazio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hellas Verona's games and 62% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hellas Verona and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Hellas Verona's matches and 55% of Lazio's.
Do Hellas Verona and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 79% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lazio run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Hellas Verona 0-3 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.08 xG and Lazio 1.80 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.81 / defence 1.33 against Lazio attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 21% | Draw 26% | Lazio 53%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 57%, Lazio 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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