Hellas Verona 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Empoli at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hellas Verona at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Hellas Verona are significantly better at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hellas Verona 1.10 PPG, Empoli 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Hellas Verona have won 1, Empoli 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Empoli in-play tendencies (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hellas Verona 65% and Empoli 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 53% | Empoli 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.08 xG and Empoli 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.817 / defence 1.235 | Empoli attack 0.765 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.166. Data: 74 Hellas Verona games / 74 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 30% | Empoli 36%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Empoli 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 40% | Empoli 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 30% | Empoli 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Hellas Verona 1.08 / Empoli 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.817 / def 1.235 | Empoli attack 0.765 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Empoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Empoli xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Empoli kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Hellas Verona 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Empoli part of?
Hellas Verona vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 34% chance of winning, Empoli a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hellas Verona and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Record (3 meetings): Hellas Verona 1W | Draws 2 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.82) and Empoli's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
34%
2.91
30%
3.32
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.18
1.10
Empoli xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.73
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.10 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 74 games, going 21W 20D 33L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.12 PPG from 74 outings (20W 23D 31L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 1.12 PPG, Empoli on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 15W 5D 17L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.03 points per game from 37 outings (8W 14D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.16 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Empoli in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 21W 20D 33L in their last 74 games (1.12 PPG), while Empoli have gone 20W 23D 31L in their last 74 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Empoli away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.35 PPG; Empoli away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Empoli won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 4, Empoli have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Empoli 1-2 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Empoli?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 65%, Empoli 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Hellas Verona) and 35% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hellas Verona's games and 51% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Empoli tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Empoli in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Empoli finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.08 xG and Empoli 1.10 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against Empoli attack 0.77 / defence 0.98, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 34% | Draw 30% | Empoli 36%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 53%, Empoli 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.12 PPG, Empoli 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.