Hellas Verona 0-5 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (66%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hellas Verona face Atalanta.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Atalanta travel to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to take on Hellas Verona in Serie A (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hellas Verona's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Atalanta have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atalanta's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atalanta are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Atalanta have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Hellas Verona.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Hellas Verona 1–6 Atalanta — a Atalanta win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Atalanta have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Atalanta in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 54% versus Atalanta 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 56% | Atalanta 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.67 xG and Atalanta 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.720 / defence 1.391 | Atalanta attack 1.074 / defence 0.677. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.305. Hellas Verona's attack rating of 0.720 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Atalanta bring a tight defence (rating 0.677, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Hellas Verona's projected output down. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.391 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atalanta's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 61 games and Atalanta's last 61.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 10% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 66%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 10.13 | Draw 4.08 | Atalanta 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (66%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 40% (last 10 home games) | Atalanta 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 10% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Hellas Verona 0.67 / Atalanta 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.720 / def 1.391 | Atalanta attack 1.074 / def 0.677 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Atalanta xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Atalanta FAQs
What time does Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Hellas Verona 0 - 5 Atalanta.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Atalanta part of?
Hellas Verona vs Atalanta is a Serie A fixture (matchday 24) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 10% chance of winning, Atalanta a 66% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hellas Verona and Atalanta will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Hellas Verona vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.72x the league average against Atalanta's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 0.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hellas Verona's last 61 games and Atalanta's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
10%
10.13
24%
4.08
66%
1.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.62
1.95
Atalanta xG
10.13
10%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
1.52
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
14%
7.03
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
1%
71.21
34%
2.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.95 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Atalanta?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hellas Verona come into this having played 61 games, going 16W 13D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.90 PPG from 61 outings (35W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hellas Verona's home form reads 9W 7D 14L across their last 30 home games, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.63 points per game from their last 30 away games (14W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.98 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
Hellas Verona (Home) vs Atalanta (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hellas Verona
Blended
Atalanta
Blended
❓ Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Form FAQs
What form are Hellas Verona and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 16W 13D 32L in their last 61 games (1.00 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 35W 11D 15L in their last 61 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.13 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Atalanta been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Atalanta in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when Atalanta won Atalanta 6-1 Hellas Verona.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
1
Draws
7
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Hellas Verona vs Atalanta H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hellas Verona have won 2, Atalanta have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Atalanta last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Atalanta 1-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Atalanta?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 57%, Atalanta 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hellas Verona and 60% for Atalanta. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta in 33%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hellas Verona vs Atalanta Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hellas Verona and Atalanta matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Hellas Verona's games and 53% of Atalanta's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hellas Verona and Atalanta matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hellas Verona's matches and 60% of Atalanta's.
Do Hellas Verona and Atalanta matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 80% of Atalanta's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Hellas Verona 0-5 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.67 xG and Atalanta 1.95 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 1.95 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.72 / defence 1.39 against Atalanta attack 1.07 / defence 0.68, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 10% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 66%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 56%, Atalanta 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atalanta's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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