Genoa 4-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 28 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Genoa, 1.00 for AS Roma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Genoa, 1 for AS Roma and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 37% versus AS Roma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 40% | AS Roma 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.44 xG and AS Roma 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.966 / defence 1.467 | AS Roma attack 0.988 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.093. Data: 5 Genoa games / 43 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | AS Roma 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Genoa 1.44 / AS Roma 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.966 / def 1.467 | AS Roma attack 0.988 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.58
AS Roma xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs AS Roma kick off?
Genoa vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Thursday 28 September 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Genoa 4 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Genoa vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs AS Roma part of?
Genoa vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 34% chance of winning, AS Roma a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Genoa and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. AS Roma (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Genoa's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.99x) against Genoa's defence (1.47x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
34%
2.99
27%
3.76
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Genoa xG
Total xG
3.02
1.58
AS Roma xG
2.99
34%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
7%
14.55
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Genoa and 1.58 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 43 games, going 22W 12D 9L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.58 PPG from 43 outings (19W 11D 13L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Genoa against 1.58 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 12W 7D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.44 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 22W 12D 9L in their last 43 games (1.81 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 19W 11D 13L in their last 43 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or AS Roma away?
Genoa's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.05 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Genoa or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, AS Roma in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 4-1 on 28 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
2
Draws
4
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, AS Roma have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Genoa 2-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 33%, AS Roma 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Genoa) and 48% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Genoa's recent matches and 67% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Genoa's recent games and 48% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and AS Roma tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genoa run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat AS Roma 4-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.44 xG and AS Roma 1.58 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.97 / defence 1.47 against AS Roma attack 0.99 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 34% | Draw 27% | AS Roma 40%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, AS Roma 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.81 PPG, AS Roma 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.