Frosinone 3-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 53%, yet in-form Cagliari provide a compelling counter-argument — this Frosinone vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Benito Stirpe to face Frosinone in Serie A (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 11:30 UK time.
Current Form
Frosinone's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Frosinone at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Frosinone are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cagliari away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Cagliari arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Cagliari edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Frosinone 3–4 Cagliari — a Cagliari win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Frosinone — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cagliari — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 52% versus Cagliari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 53% | Cagliari 47%). Note also that Cagliari surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Frosinone recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.75 xG and Cagliari 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.039 / defence 1.335 | Cagliari attack 0.718 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.080. Cagliari's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Frosinone's defence rating of 1.335 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Data: built from Frosinone's last 20 games and Cagliari's last 20.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 53% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 21%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.87 | Draw 3.97 | Cagliari 4.67. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cagliari (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Frosinone's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Frosinone 90% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 53% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Frosinone 1.75 / Cagliari 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.039 / def 1.335 | Cagliari attack 0.718 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cagliari xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Cagliari FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Cagliari kick off?
Frosinone vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Frosinone 3 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Frosinone vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Cagliari part of?
Frosinone vs Cagliari is a Serie A fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 53% chance of winning, Cagliari a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Frosinone and Cagliari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Frosinone vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Frosinone's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.72x) against Frosinone's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 20 games and Cagliari's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
53%
1.87
25%
3.97
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Frosinone xG
Total xG
2.79
1.04
Cagliari xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
4%
26.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Cagliari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.04 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone come into this having played 58 games, going 29W 12D 17L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (19W 22D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Frosinone against 1.36 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Frosinone's home form reads 18W 5D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 28 away games (4W 12D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.21 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
Frosinone (Home) vs Cagliari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frosinone vs Cagliari Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 29W 12D 17L in their last 58 games (1.71 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 19W 22D 17L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Cagliari away?
Frosinone's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.11 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cagliari in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Frosinone
2
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Cagliari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Cagliari?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 1, Cagliari have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Cagliari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Cagliari 1-0 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cagliari see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 50%, Cagliari 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Frosinone) and 43% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cagliari in 36%; Cagliari in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Cagliari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Cagliari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Frosinone's recent matches and 43% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Frosinone and Cagliari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Frosinone's recent games and 43% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Cagliari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Frosinone's recent matches and 57% of Cagliari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Cagliari 3-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.75 xG and Cagliari 1.04 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.04 / defence 1.33 against Cagliari attack 0.72 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 53% | Draw 25% | Cagliari 21%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 53%, Cagliari 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.71 PPG, Cagliari 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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