Fiorentina 2-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Lazio at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 September 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lazio's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Fiorentina) versus 1.90 (Lazio). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
Lazio have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Fiorentina's 1 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Fiorentina winning.
It is worth noting that Lazio have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lazio in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 57% versus Lazio 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 52% | Lazio 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.46 xG and Lazio 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.018 / defence 1.033 | Lazio attack 1.032 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.165. Data: 42 Fiorentina games / 42 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 39% | Draw 33% | Lazio 29%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Lazio 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 90% | Lazio 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 39% | Draw 33% | Lazio 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Fiorentina 1.46 / Lazio 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.018 / def 1.033 | Lazio attack 1.032 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lazio xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Lazio kick off?
Fiorentina vs Lazio kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Fiorentina 2 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Fiorentina vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Lazio part of?
Fiorentina vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 39% chance of winning, Lazio a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fiorentina and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lazio?
Record (6 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 1 | Lazio 4W.
What form are Fiorentina and Lazio in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Lazio (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Lazio's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.07
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.70
1.24
Lazio xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
7%
14.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.24 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 17W 12D 13L from 42 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 14L across 42 games — 1.62 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.50 PPG, Lazio on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 10W 6D 4L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 8W 3D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.36 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Lazio in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 17W 12D 13L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Lazio have gone 20W 8D 14L in their last 42 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Lazio away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.80 PPG; Lazio away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Lazio in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Lazio runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Oct 2022, when Lazio won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fiorentina
2
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 4, Lazio have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Fiorentina 1-0 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 60%, Lazio 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Fiorentina and 55% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Fiorentina's games and 65% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fiorentina's matches and 55% of Lazio's.
Do Fiorentina and Lazio tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lazio in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Lazio 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Lazio 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.46 xG and Lazio 1.24 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Lazio attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 39% | Draw 33% | Lazio 29%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 52%, Lazio 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lazio's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.50 PPG, Lazio 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.