Fiorentina 1-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Genoa travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina in Serie A (matchday 32). The game is scheduled for Monday 15 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fiorentina stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fiorentina's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fiorentina are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Genoa — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Genoa's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fiorentina 0.90 PPG, Genoa 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Fiorentina's games and 70% of Genoa's (from Fiorentina's last 10 home games and Genoa's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Fiorentina: 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Genoa, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Fiorentina 4–1 Genoa — a Fiorentina win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Fiorentina and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 4.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 52% versus Genoa 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 44% | Genoa 40%). Note also that Genoa surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Fiorentina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.44 xG and Genoa 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.161 / defence 0.972 | Genoa attack 0.812 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.187. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 68 games and Genoa's last 31.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 48% | Draw 28% | Genoa 24%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.08 | Draw 3.54 | Genoa 4.21. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Fiorentina 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 60% (last 10 home games) | Genoa 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Monday 15 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 48% | Draw 28% | Genoa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Fiorentina 1.44 / Genoa 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.161 / def 0.972 | Genoa attack 0.812 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Genoa xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa FAQs
What time does Fiorentina vs Genoa kick off?
Fiorentina vs Genoa kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Monday 15 April 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Fiorentina vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Genoa part of?
Fiorentina vs Genoa is a Serie A fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 48% chance of winning, Genoa a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fiorentina and Genoa will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Fiorentina vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.16) and Genoa's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fiorentina's last 68 games and Genoa's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.54
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.37
0.94
Genoa xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
6%
17.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.94 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 68 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 27W 18D 23L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 29W 22D 17L from 68 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.46 PPG, Genoa on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 34 home games (17W 9D 8L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 12W 10D 12L from their last 34 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.25 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
Fiorentina (Home) vs Genoa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fiorentina
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa Form FAQs
What form are Fiorentina and Genoa in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 27W 18D 23L in their last 68 games (1.46 PPG), while Genoa have gone 29W 22D 17L in their last 68 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Genoa away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.76 PPG; Genoa away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Genoa in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Jan 2022, when Fiorentina won Fiorentina 6-0 Genoa.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
3
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Fiorentina have won 5, Genoa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Genoa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 59%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fiorentina) and 47% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fiorentina vs Genoa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fiorentina and Genoa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fiorentina and Genoa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fiorentina's recent games and 47% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Genoa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 59% of Genoa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 32, as Fiorentina and Genoa drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.44 xG and Genoa 0.94 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 0.91, drawn from 68/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 48% | Draw 28% | Genoa 24%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 44%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.46 PPG, Genoa 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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