Fiorentina 1-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Fiorentina (60%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fiorentina face Cagliari.

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Analysis

Cagliari make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 11:30 UK time.

Current Form

Fiorentina's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Fiorentina at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cagliari have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cagliari's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form ledger tips toward Fiorentina. A 1.30 PPG lead over Cagliari (2.50 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fiorentina's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) — Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Cagliari in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Fiorentina have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Cagliari managing 0 and 1 draw.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2024, ended Fiorentina 3–2 Cagliari — a Fiorentina win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Fiorentina and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading

Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 55% versus Cagliari 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 53% | Cagliari 55%). Note also that Cagliari surrender HT leads in 75% of cases while Fiorentina recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.21 xG and Cagliari 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.359 / defence 0.956 | Cagliari attack 0.975 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.272. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack rating of 1.359 — their 2.21 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Fiorentina's last 51 games and Cagliari's last 52.

Result probabilities: Fiorentina 60% | Draw 21% | Cagliari 19%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.66 | Draw 4.78 | Cagliari 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.19) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fiorentina's last 10 home games and Cagliari's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fiorentina 90% (last 10 home games) | Cagliari 60% (last 10 away games).

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