Empoli 0-1 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Empoli at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Empoli face Hellas Verona.

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Match Analysis

Empoli host Hellas Verona at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A (matchday 1). Kick-off is Saturday 19 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Empoli — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Empoli at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Empoli at 1.20 PPG versus Hellas Verona's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 1 for Hellas Verona and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 May 2023, ended Empoli 1–1 Hellas Verona — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Empoli in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 50% versus Hellas Verona 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 37% | Hellas Verona 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Empoli surrender their half-time lead 60% of the time, while Hellas Verona have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Hellas Verona surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Empoli recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.45 xG and Hellas Verona 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 1.010 / defence 1.034 | Hellas Verona attack 0.862 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.194. Data: built from Empoli's last 38 games and Hellas Verona's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Empoli 46% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 28%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.18 | Draw 3.80 | Hellas Verona 3.60. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Empoli at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Empoli 50% (last 10 home games) | Hellas Verona 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Empoli 38 games, Hellas Verona 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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