Bologna vs Lecce – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecce at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Lecce travel to to take on Bologna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's home record at : 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lecce have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Lecce have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lecce away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bologna at 1.40 PPG versus Lecce's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Bologna hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 0 for Lecce, with 3 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with Bologna winning.
The historical record gives Bologna a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lecce trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 42% versus Lecce 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bologna 42% | Lecce 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.92 xG and Lecce 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.861 / defence 1.012 | Lecce attack 1.014 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Bologna games / 40 Lecce games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bologna 27% | Draw 29% | Lecce 44%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Lecce 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lecce as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Lecce 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 27% | Draw 29% | Lecce 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Bologna 0.92 / Lecce 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.861 / def 1.012 | Lecce attack 1.014 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Lecce (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lecce xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lecce kick off?
Bologna vs Lecce is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 February 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Lecce part of?
Bologna vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 27% chance of winning, Lecce a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bologna and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
Record (8 meetings): Bologna 5W | Draws 3 | Lecce 0W.
What form are Bologna and Lecce in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
27%
3.69
29%
3.49
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.19
1.26
Lecce xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
8%
13.06
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Bologna and 1.26 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 16W 8D 16L from 40 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 21L across 40 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lecce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.40 PPG, Lecce on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 6W 4D 10L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 6W 3D 11L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.75 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Lecce
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lecce in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Lecce have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lecce away?
Bologna's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.10 PPG; Lecce away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lecce in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2024, when Bologna won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bologna
3
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 5, Lecce have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Bologna 2-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Lecce?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Bologna 30% BTTS, Lecce 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Bologna and 30% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 45% of games; Lecce in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Bologna's recent matches and 35% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 30% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.