Bologna 1-0 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bologna face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Inter at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 33). Kick-off is Sunday 20 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bologna at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Inter — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Inter away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 2.00 PPG, Inter 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bologna, 2 for Inter and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Jan 2025, ended Bologna 2–2 Inter — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Inter in-play tendencies (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 50% versus Inter 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Inter 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.49 xG and Inter 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.447 / defence 0.885 | Inter attack 1.388 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.146. Bologna carry an above-average attack rating of 1.447 — their 1.49 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Inter have an above-average attack rating of 1.388, which lifts their away xG to 1.41. Data: built from Bologna's last 70 games and Inter's last 70.
Result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 28% | Inter 34%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.62 | Draw 3.64 | Inter 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bologna's last 10 home games and Inter's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bologna 70% (last 10 home games) | Inter 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 28% | Inter 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Bologna 1.49 / Inter 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.447 / def 0.885 | Inter attack 1.388 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Inter xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Inter FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Inter kick off?
Bologna vs Inter kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Inter?
Bologna 1 - 0 Inter.
Where is Bologna vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Inter part of?
Bologna vs Inter is a Serie A fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 38% chance of winning, Inter a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bologna and Inter will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bologna vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.45) and Inter's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 70 games and Inter's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.64
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.90
1.41
Inter xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
8%
12.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Inter Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Bologna and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Bologna and 1.41 for Inter, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 33W 26D 11L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 50W 15D 5L from 70 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.11 PPG from their last 35 home games (21W 11D 3L).
On the road, Inter have gone 24W 8D 3L from their last 35 away games — 2.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.30 scored and 0.76 conceded. Inter's attacking output running into Bologna's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Inter in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
Bologna (Home) vs Inter (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Bologna vs Inter Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Inter in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 33W 26D 11L in their last 70 games (1.79 PPG), while Inter have gone 50W 15D 5L in their last 70 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.11 PPG; Inter away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Bologna or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Inter in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2022, when Inter won Inter 6-1 Bologna.
Bologna's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Inter H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 3, Inter have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Inter last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Bologna 1-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 70% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 46%, Inter 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bologna) and 57% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Inter in 51%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Inter Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Inter matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bologna's recent matches and 40% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Inter matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bologna's recent games and 57% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Inter matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Bologna's recent matches and 71% of Inter's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Inter 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Inter 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.49 xG and Inter 1.41 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inter landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.45 / defence 0.89 against Inter attack 1.39 / defence 0.83, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 38% | Draw 28% | Inter 34%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Inter 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inter's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.79. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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