Bologna 2-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bologna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Fiorentina make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Bologna (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Bologna's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Fiorentina have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Bologna against 1.20 for Fiorentina. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bologna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fiorentina in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bologna, 2 for Fiorentina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Fiorentina winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bologna — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Fiorentina — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 51% versus Fiorentina 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 49% | Fiorentina 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.13 xG and Fiorentina 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.926 / defence 1.025 | Fiorentina attack 0.803 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.047. Data: 43 Bologna games / 43 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bologna 38% | Draw 38% | Fiorentina 24%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Fiorentina 4.17. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 60% | Fiorentina 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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