Atalanta 4-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Tuesday 30 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 2W 3D 2L at Gewiss Stadium — 1.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.29 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Atalanta. A 0.90 PPG lead over Venezia (2.10 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atalanta 79% and Venezia 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 71% | Venezia 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.57 xG and Venezia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.102 / defence 1.296 | Venezia attack 0.578 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.378. Data: 14 Atalanta games / 14 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Venezia 4.00. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 86% | Venezia 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Atalanta 1.57 / Venezia 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.102 / def 1.296 | Venezia attack 0.578 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Venezia xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Venezia kick off?
Atalanta vs Venezia kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 30 November 2021 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Venezia?
Atalanta 4 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Atalanta vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Venezia part of?
Atalanta vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 50% chance of winning, Venezia a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atalanta and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atalanta and Venezia in?
Atalanta (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Venezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.10) and Venezia's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.58x) against Atalanta's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
50%
2.01
25%
3.95
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.60
1.03
Venezia xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.65
5%
19.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.03 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atalanta's recent record stands at 8W 4D 2L from 14 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 7L across 14 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Venezia's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.86 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Venezia in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 games (2.00 PPG), while Venezia have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Venezia away?
Atalanta's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.29 PPG; Venezia away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Atalanta
1
Draws
0
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Venezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2025, when Atalanta 0-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Venezia?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 86%, Venezia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Atalanta) and 43% (Venezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Atalanta's games and 43% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Atalanta's matches and 43% of Venezia's.
Do Atalanta and Venezia tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Venezia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Venezia 4-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.57 xG and Venezia 1.03 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Atalanta beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.10 / defence 1.30 against Venezia attack 0.58 / defence 1.14, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 71%, Venezia 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.