Atalanta 1-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Atalanta (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Atalanta face Torino.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Torino meet at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gewiss Stadium, Atalanta have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Torino have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Atalanta's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Torino's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Atalanta 4W, Torino 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Torino winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 57% versus Torino 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 65% | Torino 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.01 xG and Torino 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.502 / defence 1.086 | Torino attack 0.911 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.336. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.502 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Atalanta games / 60 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 52% | Draw 25% | Torino 23%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Torino 4.35. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 90% | Torino 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 52% | Draw 25% | Torino 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Atalanta 2.01 / Torino 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.502 / def 1.086 | Torino attack 0.911 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Torino xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Torino kick off?
Atalanta vs Torino kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Torino?
Atalanta 1 - 1 Torino.
Where is Atalanta vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Torino part of?
Atalanta vs Torino is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 52% chance of winning, Torino a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Atalanta and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Torino?
Record (7 meetings): Atalanta 4W | Draws 1 | Torino 2W.
What form are Atalanta and Torino in?
Atalanta (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Torino (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.50) and Torino's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.91x) against Atalanta's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.03
23%
4.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.33
1.32
Torino xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.27
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.23
3%
31.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.32 for Torino, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 35W 10D 15L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 19W 22D 19L from 60 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-W. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atalanta are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 2.17 PPG from 29 outings (20W 3D 6L).
On the road, Torino have gone 8W 9D 12L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 0.98 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Torino in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Torino in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 35W 10D 15L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while Torino have gone 19W 22D 19L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Torino away?
Atalanta's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.17 PPG; Torino away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Torino in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Atalanta have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Torino won 3-0 on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atalanta
2
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Torino?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 6, Torino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Atalanta 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Torino?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Torino see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 62%, Torino 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Atalanta) and 38% (Torino). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Torino in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Atalanta's recent matches and 45% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Atalanta's matches and 38% of Torino's.
Do Atalanta and Torino tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Torino in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Torino finished level at 1-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.01 xG and Torino 1.32 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.50 / defence 1.09 against Torino attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 52% | Draw 25% | Torino 23%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 65%, Torino 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.