Atalanta 0-0 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atalanta and Inter meet at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gewiss Stadium, Atalanta have gone 3W 3D 3L this season (9 games, 1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.33 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
Inter's overall Serie A record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Inter are 0.50 PPG clear of Atalanta in recent Serie A fixtures (2.80 vs 2.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atalanta have seen both teams score in 78% of their games, Inter in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atalanta lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Atalanta — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Inter — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atalanta 75% and Inter 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Atalanta 75% | Inter 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.24 xG and Inter 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.208 / defence 1.286 | Inter attack 1.133 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.567. Data: 20 Atalanta games / 20 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 20% | Draw 19% | Inter 61%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 5.00 | Draw 5.26 | Inter 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Inter (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 78% | Inter 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 20% | Draw 19% | Inter 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG Atalanta 1.24 / Inter 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.208 / def 1.286 | Inter attack 1.133 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.567 • Poisson stance: Inter (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
2.29
Inter xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Inter kick off?
Atalanta vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Inter?
Atalanta 0 - 0 Inter.
Where is Atalanta vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Inter part of?
Atalanta vs Inter is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 20% chance of winning, Inter a 61% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Atalanta and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Atalanta 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Inter in?
Atalanta (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Inter (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (1.21) and Inter's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.13x) against Atalanta's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.29.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
20%
5.05
19%
5.14
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
0 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.53
2.29
Inter xG
5.05
20%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
10%
9.83
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
2%
49.62
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Atalanta and 2.29 for Inter, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atalanta come into this having played 20 games, going 12W 5D 3L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inter sit at 2.45 PPG from 20 outings (15W 4D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Atalanta — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Atalanta's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.05 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Inter have taken 2.22 points per game from 9 outings (6W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.55 scored and 0.80 conceded. Atalanta's scoring rate against Inter's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Inter in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 12W 5D 3L in their last 20 games (2.05 PPG), while Inter have gone 15W 4D 1L in their last 20 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.33 PPG; Inter away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 28 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Atalanta
3
Draws
7
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 0, Inter have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Inter 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Atalanta, 56% for Inter — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Atalanta and 67% for Inter. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Atalanta's games and 56% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Atalanta's matches and 67% of Inter's.
Do Atalanta and Inter tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Inter in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atalanta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Atalanta and Inter drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.24 xG and Inter 2.29 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Inter landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.21 / defence 1.29 against Inter attack 1.13 / defence 0.88, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 20% | Draw 19% | Inter 61%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 75%, Inter 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Inter's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 2.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Inter (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.