AS Roma vs Venezia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Venezia meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Venezia's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in AS Roma's favour (2.50 vs 1.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: AS Roma 2W, Venezia 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 32% versus Venezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 40% | Venezia 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.09 xG and Venezia 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.453 / defence 0.739 | Venezia attack 0.699 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 AS Roma games / 2 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 71% | Draw 19% | Venezia 10%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.41 | Draw 5.26 | Venezia 10.00. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 71% | Draw 19% | Venezia 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 41% | xG AS Roma 2.09 / Venezia 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.453 / def 0.739 | Venezia attack 0.699 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Venezia xG
41%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Venezia kick off?
AS Roma vs Venezia is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Venezia part of?
AS Roma vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 71% chance of winning, Venezia a 10% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both AS Roma and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Venezia?
Record (4 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 1 | Venezia 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Venezia in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Venezia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.45x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.70x) against AS Roma's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
71%
1.40
19%
5.39
10%
9.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.73
0.64
Venezia xG
1.40
71%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
9.92
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
38%
2.65
1%
80.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.64 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma's recent record stands at 25W 4D 11L from 40 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia, meanwhile, have gone 24W 10D 6L across 40 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for AS Roma against 2.05 for Venezia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 14W 3D 3L from 20 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Venezia's away record stands at 7W 10D 3L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.92 scored and 0.88 conceded. Venezia's attacking output running into AS Roma's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Venezia in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Venezia in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Venezia have gone 24W 10D 6L in their last 40 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Venezia away?
AS Roma's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.25 PPG; Venezia away: 1.55 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Venezia in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
AS Roma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
AS Roma
1
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Venezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Venezia 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Venezia?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 25%, Venezia 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (AS Roma) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AS Roma's recent matches and 65% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of AS Roma's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Venezia tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Venezia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.