AS Roma 2-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 9 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Olimpico — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lecce (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward AS Roma. A 1.00 PPG lead over Lecce (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Lecce — key trading statistics (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Lecce 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 50% | Lecce 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.24 xG and Lecce 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.952 / defence 0.768 | Lecce attack 0.807 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.150. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 AS Roma games / 8 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 35% | Lecce 19%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.17 | Draw 2.86 | Lecce 5.26. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.95 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Lecce 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 35% | Lecce 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG AS Roma 1.24 / Lecce 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.952 / def 0.768 | Lecce attack 0.807 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Lecce xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Lecce kick off?
AS Roma vs Lecce kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
AS Roma 2 - 1 Lecce.
Where is AS Roma vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Lecce part of?
AS Roma vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 46% chance of winning, Lecce a 19% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both AS Roma and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lecce?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Lecce in?
AS Roma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Lecce (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.95) and Lecce's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.81x) against AS Roma's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
46%
2.16
35%
2.86
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.95
0.71
Lecce xG
2.16
46%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.71 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma come into this having played 46 games, going 23W 10D 13L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 1.70 PPG from 46 outings (20W 18D 8L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for AS Roma against 1.70 for Lecce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Roma's home form reads 12W 6D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (7W 10D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.43 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Lecce in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 23W 10D 13L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while Lecce have gone 20W 18D 8L in their last 46 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Lecce away?
AS Roma's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.91 PPG; Lecce away: 1.41 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lecce in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-1 on 7 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when AS Roma 1-0 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Lecce?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 36%, Lecce 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 32% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Lecce in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of AS Roma's recent matches and 54% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 32% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Lecce tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lecce in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Lecce 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Lecce 2-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.24 xG and Lecce 0.71 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.95 / defence 0.77 against Lecce attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 46% | Draw 35% | Lecce 19%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 50%, Lecce 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecce's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.72 PPG, Lecce 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Lecce (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.