AS Roma 0-3 Inter – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Inter at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Inter meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 5W 1D 1L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. Their home PPG of 2.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Inter have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's away record: 5W 2D 1L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (2.12 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Inter are 0.80 PPG clear of AS Roma in recent Serie A fixtures (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Inter goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 47% versus Inter 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 53% | Inter 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.03 xG and Inter 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.891 / defence 0.767 | Inter attack 0.996 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.369. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.767 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 15 AS Roma games / 15 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 35% | Draw 30% | Inter 35%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Inter 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 43% | Inter 75%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 35% | Draw 30% | Inter 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG AS Roma 1.03 / Inter 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.891 / def 0.767 | Inter attack 0.996 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Inter xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Inter kick off?
AS Roma vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Inter?
AS Roma 0 - 3 Inter.
Where is AS Roma vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Inter part of?
AS Roma vs Inter is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 35% chance of winning, Inter a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both AS Roma and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Inter in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Inter (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.89) and Inter's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.00x) against AS Roma's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
35%
2.89
30%
3.32
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.08
1.04
Inter xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.04 for Inter, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma's recent record stands at 8W 1D 6L from 15 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 1L across 15 games — 2.27 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Roma heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Inter's away record stands at 4W 2D 1L across 7 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter in 67%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Inter in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 8W 1D 6L in their last 15 games (1.67 PPG), while Inter have gone 10W 4D 1L in their last 15 (2.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Inter away?
AS Roma's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.29 PPG; Inter away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Inter in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Inter have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 0-3 on 4 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
0
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Inter have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Inter 5-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 43%, Inter 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (AS Roma) and 57% (Inter).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of AS Roma's games and 71% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Roma vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of AS Roma's recent games and 57% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Inter tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Inter in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inter run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat AS Roma 0-3 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.03 xG and Inter 1.04 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Inter outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.89 / defence 0.77 against Inter attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 35% | Draw 30% | Inter 35%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Inter win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 53%, Inter 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.