AS Roma 2-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Hellas Verona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 26 as AS Roma welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 1.50 PPG versus Hellas Verona's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for AS Roma, 1 for Hellas Verona and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 2–3 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AS Roma 52% and Hellas Verona 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 56% | Hellas Verona 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.47 xG and Hellas Verona 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.872 / defence 0.999 | Hellas Verona attack 0.975 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.433. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 AS Roma games / 25 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 37% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 33%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Hellas Verona 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Hellas Verona 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 37% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG AS Roma 1.47 / Hellas Verona 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.872 / def 0.999 | Hellas Verona attack 0.975 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Hellas Verona xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kick off?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
AS Roma 2 - 2 Hellas Verona.
Where is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona part of?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 37% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both AS Roma and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
Record (1 meetings): AS Roma 0W | Draws 0 | Hellas Verona 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Hellas Verona in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
37%
2.74
30%
3.31
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.87
1.40
Hellas Verona xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
8%
13.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.40 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 25 games, going 12W 4D 9L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 1.44 PPG from 25 outings (10W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.60 PPG, Hellas Verona on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 6W 3D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 1.08 points per game from 12 outings (3W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 1.88 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona in 76%.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 12W 4D 9L in their last 25 games (1.60 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 10W 6D 9L in their last 25 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Hellas Verona away?
AS Roma's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.75 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 1.08 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
AS Roma's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AS Roma
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 33%, Hellas Verona 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (AS Roma) and 58% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AS Roma's recent matches and 75% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of AS Roma's recent games and 58% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Hellas Verona share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 26, as AS Roma and Hellas Verona drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.47 xG and Hellas Verona 1.40 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Hellas Verona attack 0.97 / defence 1.48, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 37% | Draw 30% | Hellas Verona 33%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 56%, Hellas Verona 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.60 PPG, Hellas Verona 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.