AS Roma 2-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.33 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 0L across 3 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Empoli have collected 1.50 PPG across 6 Serie A outings this season: 3W 0D 3L. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.67. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward AS Roma. A 0.50 PPG lead over Empoli (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
Empoli — key trading statistics (6 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 67% versus Empoli 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AS Roma 83% | Empoli 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.14 xG and Empoli 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.072 / defence 0.891 | Empoli attack 0.829 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.523. Data: 6 AS Roma games / 6 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 36% | Draw 29% | Empoli 35%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Empoli 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AS Roma 67% | Empoli 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 36% | Draw 29% | Empoli 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG AS Roma 1.14 / Empoli 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.072 / def 0.891 | Empoli attack 0.829 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Empoli xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Empoli kick off?
AS Roma vs Empoli kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Empoli?
AS Roma 2 - 0 Empoli.
Where is AS Roma vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Empoli part of?
AS Roma vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 36% chance of winning, Empoli a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AS Roma and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Empoli in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.07) and Empoli's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.83x) against AS Roma's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.50
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.27
1.12
Empoli xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
11%
8.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.12 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma come into this having played 6 games, going 4W 0D 2L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.50 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Empoli in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Empoli have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Have AS Roma or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Empoli in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 7-0 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
0
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Empoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Empoli 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Empoli?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 67%, Empoli 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for AS Roma and 67% for Empoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Empoli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of AS Roma's games and 50% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Roma vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of AS Roma's matches and 67% of Empoli's.
Do AS Roma and Empoli tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Empoli in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Empoli 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.14 xG and Empoli 1.12 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Empoli attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 36% | Draw 29% | Empoli 35%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 83%, Empoli 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Empoli's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.