AS Roma 3-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.30 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. AS Roma's 30% rate and Cremonese's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Cremonese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with AS Roma winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 40% versus Cremonese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 33% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.62 xG and Cremonese 0.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.125 / defence 0.632 | Cremonese attack 0.626 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.219. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.632 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 AS Roma games / 25 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 65% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 11%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Cremonese 9.09. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (65%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Cremonese's lower xG of 0.48 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Cremonese 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 65% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 31% | xG AS Roma 1.62 / Cremonese 0.48 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.125 / def 0.632 | Cremonese attack 0.626 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.48
Cremonese xG
31%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Cremonese kick off?
AS Roma vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cremonese?
AS Roma 3 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is AS Roma vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cremonese part of?
AS Roma vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 65% chance of winning, Cremonese a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both AS Roma and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Cremonese in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (16.0%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
65%
1.53
24%
4.14
11%
9.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.10
0.48
Cremonese xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
9.49
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.24
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
62%
1.62
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
2%
47.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 9.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.0 | 7.7 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.48 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 63 games, going 35W 11D 17L for 1.84 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.37 PPG from 63 outings (21W 23D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Cremonese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 21W 3D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.32 points per game from 31 outings (11W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.35 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Cremonese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 35W 11D 17L in their last 63 games (1.84 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 21W 23D 19L in their last 63 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cremonese away?
AS Roma's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.13 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.32 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cremonese in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when AS Roma won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
AS Roma
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AS Roma 3-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cremonese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 39%, Cremonese 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (AS Roma) and 55% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Cremonese in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of AS Roma's recent matches and 52% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of AS Roma's recent games and 55% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cremonese tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cremonese 3-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.62 xG and Cremonese 0.48 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.12 / defence 0.63 against Cremonese attack 0.63 / defence 1.18, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 65% | Draw 24% | Cremonese 11%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 65%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 33%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.