AS Roma 2-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as AS Roma face Bologna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AS Roma host Bologna at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
AS Roma — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, AS Roma have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 3W 6D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bologna have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 1.20 PPG versus Bologna's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, AS Roma have won 1, Bologna 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2024, ended AS Roma 1–3 Bologna — a Bologna win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 60% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 56% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.37 xG and Bologna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.963 / defence 0.773 | Bologna attack 1.034 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.317. AS Roma have a tight defence (rating 0.773), which is pulling Bologna's projected output down. Data: built from AS Roma's last 49 games and Bologna's last 48.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 27% | Bologna 29%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.27 | Draw 3.69 | Bologna 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 40% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 44% | Draw 27% | Bologna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG AS Roma 1.37 / Bologna 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.963 / def 0.773 | Bologna attack 1.034 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Bologna xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Bologna FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Bologna kick off?
AS Roma vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
AS Roma 2 - 3 Bologna.
Where is AS Roma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Bologna part of?
AS Roma vs Bologna is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 44% chance of winning, Bologna a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AS Roma and Bologna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will AS Roma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.96) and Bologna's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 49 games and Bologna's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.69
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.42
1.05
Bologna xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Bologna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.05 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 48 games, going 21W 12D 15L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.73 PPG from 48 outings (21W 20D 7L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.56 PPG, Bologna on 1.73. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 15W 3D 5L across their last 23 home games, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.48 points per game from their last 23 away games (8W 10D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.38 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bologna in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Bologna
Blended
AS Roma (Home) vs Bologna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ AS Roma vs Bologna Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Bologna in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while Bologna have gone 21W 20D 7L in their last 48 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Bologna away?
AS Roma's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.09 PPG; Bologna away: 1.48 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bologna in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
AS Roma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
AS Roma
3
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Bologna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Bologna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 3, Bologna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Bologna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Bologna 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 52%, Bologna 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (AS Roma) and 56% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Bologna in 30%; Bologna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Bologna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Bologna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AS Roma's recent matches and 56% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Bologna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of AS Roma's recent games and 56% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Bologna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of AS Roma's recent matches and 74% of Bologna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat AS Roma 2-3 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.37 xG and Bologna 1.05 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bologna outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.96 / defence 0.77 against Bologna attack 1.03 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 44% | Draw 27% | Bologna 29%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 56%, Bologna 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bologna's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.56 PPG, Bologna 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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