St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as St Patrick's Athl. face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. welcome UCD to Richmond Park in Premier Division (matchday 7). Kick-off is Friday 31 March 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, UCD stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, UCD have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of St Patrick's Athl.: 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for UCD, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2022, ended St Patrick's Athl. 2–1 UCD — a St Patrick's Athl. win.
The head-to-head data gives St Patrick's Athl. an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
UCD in-play and half-time data (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 47% versus UCD 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 55% | UCD 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.53 xG and UCD 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.927 / defence 0.916 | UCD attack 0.846 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.157. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 42 games and UCD's last 42.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 51% | Draw 28% | UCD 21%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.95 | Draw 3.64 | UCD 4.71. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 50% (last 10 home games) | UCD 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 7 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 March 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 51% | Draw 28% | UCD 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.53 / UCD 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.927 / def 0.916 | UCD attack 0.846 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.90
UCD xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 31 March 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
St Patrick's Athl. 3 - 0 UCD.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 7) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 51% chance of winning, UCD a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and UCD will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against UCD's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, UCD's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 42 games and UCD's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
51%
1.95
28%
3.64
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.43
0.90
UCD xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
5%
21.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.90 for UCD, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St Patrick's Athl.'s recent record stands at 18W 9D 11L from 38 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
UCD, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 22L across 38 games — 0.84 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over UCD heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St Patrick's Athl. have managed 10W 4D 5L from their last 19 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
UCD's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across their last 19 away games, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.82 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs UCD (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
UCD
Current Season
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and UCD in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while UCD have gone 8W 8D 22L in their last 38 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or UCD away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.79 PPG; UCD away: 0.79 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or UCD been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, UCD in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 25 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: St Patrick's Athl. have taken the most recent 8 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Jun 2023, when St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 7-0 UCD.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting UCD specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
St Patrick's Athl.
0
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and UCD?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, UCD have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and UCD last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 August 2023: UCD 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and UCD?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 47%, UCD 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 53% (UCD). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; UCD in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs UCD Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and UCD matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 42% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and UCD matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 53% of UCD's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and UCD matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 84% of UCD's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 3-0 hammering of UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat UCD 3-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.53 xG and UCD 0.90 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. UCD landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against UCD attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 51% | Draw 28% | UCD 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 55%, UCD 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
UCD's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. UCD (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.