St Patrick's Athl. 0-0 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Derry City travel to Richmond Park to take on St Patrick's Athl.. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 March 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derry City are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 4 for Derry City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Derry City trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Derry City 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.85 xG and Derry City 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.379 / defence 0.768 | Derry City attack 0.937 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.061. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.379 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.768 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 St Patrick's Athl. games / 42 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 63% | Draw 22% | Derry City 15%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Derry City 6.67. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Derry City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Monday 16 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 63% | Draw 22% | Derry City 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.85 / Derry City 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.379 / def 0.768 | Derry City attack 0.937 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Derry City xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 16 March 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 0 Derry City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 63% chance of winning, Derry City a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Record (7 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 1 | Derry City 4W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.38) and Derry City's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.52
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.61
0.76
Derry City xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
29%
3.41
2%
42.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.76 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 21D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.64 PPG from 72 outings (32W 22D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54 PPG, Derry City on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 19W 10D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.44 points per game from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.39 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Derry City away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.86 PPG; Derry City away: 1.44 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Derry City in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Derry City specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Derry City have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Derry City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 36% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Derry City in 39%; Derry City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 42% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 36% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Derry City in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at St Patrick's Athl.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. and Derry City finished level at 0-0 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.85 xG and Derry City 0.76 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.38 / defence 0.77 against Derry City attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 63% | Draw 22% | Derry City 15%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG, Derry City 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.