St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 84% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cork City make the trip to Richmond Park to face St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 7 July 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
St Patrick's Athl. (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl. at Richmond Park this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cork City's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cork City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cork City's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in St Patrick's Athl.'s favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: St Patrick's Athl. 2W, Cork City 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2023, ended 3–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
St Patrick's Athl. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Cork City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 50% versus Cork City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 68% | Cork City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 2.96 xG and Cork City 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.443 / defence 0.770 | Cork City attack 0.782 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.071. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.443 — their λ of 2.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing St Patrick's Athl.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 St Patrick's Athl. games / 22 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 84% | Draw 11% | Cork City 5%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.19 | Draw 9.09 | Cork City 20.00. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (84%) — a 79pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 20% | Cork City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 7 Jul 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 84% | Draw 11% | Cork City 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 45% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 2.96 / Cork City 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.443 / def 0.770 | Cork City attack 0.782 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.96
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Cork City xG
45%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 7 July 2023 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
St Patrick's Athl. 1 - 1 Cork City.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 84% chance of winning, Cork City a 5% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City?
Record (2 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 0 | Cork City 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Cork City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates St Patrick's Athl.'s attack at 1.44x the league average against Cork City's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 2.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cork City's attack (0.78x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.65.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.8%), 4-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
84%
1.20
11%
9.08
5%
18.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.8%
Home win
4 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.96
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
3.60
0.65
Cork City xG
1.20
84%
Home win
9.08
11%
Draw
18.80
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
5%
19.22
Win to Nil
44%
2.28
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.96 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.65 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 22 games, going 12W 2D 8L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cork City sit at 1.00 PPG from 22 outings (6W 4D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cork City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Cork City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 7W 0D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Cork City have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cork City's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.14 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Cork City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 12W 2D 8L in their last 22 games (1.73 PPG), while Cork City have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Cork City away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.10 PPG; Cork City away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 on 7 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cork City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
0
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Cork City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. 4-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 40% (Cork City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for St Patrick's Athl. and 60% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. have failed to score in 30% of games; Cork City in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Cork City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 40% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 60% of Cork City's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cork City in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 23, as St Patrick's Athl. and Cork City drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 2.96 xG and Cork City 0.65 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.44 / defence 0.77 against Cork City attack 0.78 / defence 1.37, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 84% | Draw 11% | Cork City 5%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 84%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 68%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cork City's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Cork City (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.