St Patrick's Athl. 2-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Bohemians at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 May 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG and Bohemians 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.269 / defence 0.889 | Bohemians attack 0.765 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 0.842 / away 1.302. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — their λ of 1.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 St Patrick's Athl. games / 11 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 27%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Bohemians 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 May 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 / Bohemians 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.269 / def 0.889 | Bohemians attack 0.765 / def 1.016 | league avg home 0.842 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bohemians xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 21 May 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.27) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
37%
2.68
36%
2.79
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
1.97
0.89
Bohemians xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.89 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
5
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Bohemians have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Bohemians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Bohemians 2-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.08 xG and Bohemians 0.89 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.27 / defence 0.89 against Bohemians attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 37% | Draw 36% | Bohemians 27%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.