Sligo Rovers 0-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sligo Rovers face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Showgrounds to take on Sligo Rovers. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Sligo Rovers have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Showgrounds, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour St Patrick's Athl., who boast 7 victories compared to 1 for Sligo Rovers.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2026, ended 0–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 49% versus St Patrick's Athl. 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 49% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 0.88 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 0.830 / defence 1.155 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.084 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.370. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 67 Sligo Rovers games / 67 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 16% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 6.25 | Draw 3.33 | St Patrick's Athl. 1.85. St Patrick's Athl. hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 16% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Sligo Rovers 0.88 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 0.830 / def 1.155 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.084 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.72
St Patrick's Athl. xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 16% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 54% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (9 meetings): Sligo Rovers 1W | Draws 1 | St Patrick's Athl. 7W.
What form are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 0.83x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
16%
6.23
30%
3.37
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.60
1.72
St Patrick's Athl. xG
6.23
16%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
3%
34.69
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.72 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 67 games, going 16W 16D 35L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.61 PPG from 67 outings (29W 21D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 8W 11D 14L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.30 points per game from 33 outings (11W 10D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Sligo Rovers are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.39 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 16D 35L in their last 67 games (0.96 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 29W 21D 17L in their last 67 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.06 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
8
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Sligo Rovers 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 54%, St Patrick's Athl. 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sligo Rovers) and 36% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. in 39%; Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 30% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 36% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 36% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Sligo Rovers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 0-1 at Showgrounds, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 0.88 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.72 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.08 / defence 0.73, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 16% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 49%, St Patrick's Athl. 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.