Shelbourne 0-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Shelbourne (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shelbourne face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 14 as Shelbourne welcome Waterford to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shelbourne — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shelbourne have posted 5W 3D 2L at Tolka Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waterford's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Shelbourne have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shelbourne: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Waterford, with 0 draws across those contests.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Shelbourne winning.
The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shelbourne trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Waterford trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 49% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 32% | Waterford 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.48 xG and Waterford 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.984 / defence 0.926 | Waterford attack 0.926 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.189. Data: 49 Shelbourne games / 49 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Waterford 25%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Waterford 4.00. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 50% | Waterford 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Waterford 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Shelbourne 1.48 / Waterford 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.984 / def 0.926 | Waterford attack 0.926 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Waterford xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Waterford kick off?
Shelbourne vs Waterford kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Shelbourne 0 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Shelbourne vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Waterford part of?
Shelbourne vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 46% chance of winning, Waterford a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shelbourne and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Record (4 meetings): Shelbourne 4W | Draws 0 | Waterford 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and Waterford in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.98) and Waterford's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.46
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.50
1.02
Waterford xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
6%
17.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.02 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 18W 12D 7L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 14W 6D 17L from 37 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Shelbourne are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (9W 6D 3L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 6W 2D 10L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shelbourne are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 18W 12D 7L in their last 37 games (1.78 PPG), while Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Waterford away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.83 PPG; Waterford away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Waterford in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shelbourne's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
2
Draws
2
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Waterford have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Waterford 1-0 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 50%, Waterford 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Shelbourne) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Waterford in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 39% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Shelbourne's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Waterford tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Waterford in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Shelbourne 0-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.48 xG and Waterford 1.02 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.98 / defence 0.93 against Waterford attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 46% | Draw 29% | Waterford 25%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Waterford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 32%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Waterford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Waterford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.