Shelbourne 0-3 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Shelbourne take on Finn Harps.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Finn Harps travel to Tolka Park to take on Shelbourne. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Finn Harps have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.08 xG and Finn Harps 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.670 / defence 1.272 | Finn Harps attack 0.882 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 0.974. Shelbourne's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Shelbourne games / 41 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 32% | Draw 36% | Finn Harps 32%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Finn Harps 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 32% | Draw 36% | Finn Harps 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Shelbourne 1.08 / Finn Harps 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.670 / def 1.272 | Finn Harps attack 0.882 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.222 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Finn Harps xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Finn Harps kick off?
Shelbourne vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Shelbourne 0 - 3 Finn Harps.
Where is Shelbourne vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Finn Harps part of?
Shelbourne vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 32% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shelbourne and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Finn Harps?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Finn Harps in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Finn Harps away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Finn Harps's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
36%
2.77
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.18
1.09
Finn Harps xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.09 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Mar 2022, when Finn Harps won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shelbourne's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shelbourne
1
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Finn Harps?
From 4 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 1, Finn Harps have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2022, when Finn Harps 1-1 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Finn Harps?
Finn Harps have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Finn Harps run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Shelbourne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Shelbourne 0-3 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.08 xG and Finn Harps 1.09 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Finn Harps outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.67 / defence 1.27 against Finn Harps attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 6/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 32% | Draw 36% | Finn Harps 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Finn Harps win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.