Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derry City at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Monday 29 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derry City (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.40 for Derry City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derry City in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 48% versus Derry City 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 44% | Derry City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 0.95 xG and Derry City 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.841 / defence 1.142 | Derry City attack 1.245 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.037. Derry City have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 Shelbourne games / 62 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 23% | Draw 28% | Derry City 49%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 4.35 | Draw 3.57 | Derry City 2.04. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 60% | Derry City 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 23% | Draw 28% | Derry City 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Shelbourne 0.95 / Derry City 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.841 / def 1.142 | Derry City attack 1.245 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Derry City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Derry City xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Derry City kick off?
Shelbourne vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 August 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Shelbourne vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Derry City part of?
Shelbourne vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 23% chance of winning, Derry City a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shelbourne and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Derry City (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.25x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 25/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
23%
4.26
28%
3.60
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.42
1.48
Derry City xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
5%
18.63
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 13.1 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.48 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 9W 5D 11L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derry City's form line: 12W 9D 4L from 25 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shelbourne.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 7W 3D 2L from 12 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.60 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Derry City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Derry City have gone 12W 9D 4L in their last 25 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.25 PPG; Derry City away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Derry City in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 50%, Derry City 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shelbourne) and 50% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shelbourne's games and 67% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shelbourne vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shelbourne's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Derry City tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derry City in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Shelbourne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Shelbourne 0-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 0.95 xG and Derry City 1.48 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.84 / defence 1.14 against Derry City attack 1.25 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 23% | Draw 28% | Derry City 49%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 44%, Derry City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.