Shelbourne 1-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Derry City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 30 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Derry City (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Derry City have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Derry City are 1.10 PPG clear of Shelbourne in recent Premier Division fixtures (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Derry City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 42% | Derry City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.00 xG and Derry City 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.856 / defence 0.897 | Derry City attack 1.024 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.113. Data: 57 Shelbourne games / 59 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 34% | Draw 31% | Derry City 35%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Derry City 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 40% | Derry City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 34% | Draw 31% | Derry City 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Shelbourne 1.00 / Derry City 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.856 / def 0.897 | Derry City attack 1.024 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Derry City (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Derry City xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Derry City kick off?
Shelbourne vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 30 June 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Shelbourne vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Derry City part of?
Shelbourne vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 34% chance of winning, Derry City a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shelbourne and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.02x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 57/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
34%
2.92
31%
3.27
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.03
1.02
Derry City xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.02 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 10W 11D 15L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 18W 12D 6L from 36 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shelbourne.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 10W 5D 3L from 18 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.47 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Derry City have gone 18W 12D 6L in their last 36 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.17 PPG; Derry City away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Derry City in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Derry City have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 44%, Derry City 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 39% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 39%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 50% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 39% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Derry City tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Derry City in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne and Derry City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 22, as Shelbourne and Derry City drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.00 xG and Derry City 1.02 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.86 / defence 0.90 against Derry City attack 1.02 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 34% | Draw 31% | Derry City 35%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 42%, Derry City 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.