Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tallaght Stadium to face Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Thursday 4 July 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Shamrock Rovers against 1.10 for Dundalk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dundalk in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shamrock Rovers lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Dundalk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 45% versus Dundalk 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 48% | Dundalk 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.02 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.226 / defence 1.148 | Dundalk attack 0.980 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 0.938. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Shamrock Rovers games / 58 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Draw 21% | Dundalk 19%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Dundalk 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Dundalk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Jul 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Draw 21% | Dundalk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Shamrock Rovers 2.02 / Dundalk 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.226 / def 1.148 | Dundalk attack 0.980 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.265 / away 0.938 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dundalk xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:00 on Thursday 4 July 2024 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 60% chance of winning, Dundalk a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Record (6 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 3W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 2W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.98x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.74
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
3.08
1.05
Dundalk xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
13%
7.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
3%
39.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.05 for Dundalk, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 58 games, going 28W 19D 11L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.33 PPG from 58 outings (21W 14D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 17W 7D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.00 points per game from 28 outings (8W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.24 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Dundalk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 28W 19D 11L in their last 58 games (1.78 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 21W 14D 23L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.07 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Dundalk in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Dundalk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 54%, Dundalk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Shamrock Rovers) and 43% (Dundalk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Dundalk in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 50% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 43% of Dundalk's.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Dundalk 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.02 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dundalk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.23 / defence 1.15 against Dundalk attack 0.98 / defence 1.30, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 60% | Draw 21% | Dundalk 19%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 48%, Dundalk 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dundalk's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.