Longford Town 0-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 14 as Longford Town welcome Shamrock Rovers to Bishopsgate Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 May 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Longford Town, 1 for Shamrock Rovers and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2021, ended 1–2 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.70 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.760 / defence 1.244 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.978 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 0.924 / away 1.304. Longford Town's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Longford Town games / 13 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 16% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 59%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Shamrock Rovers 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 16% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 40% | xG Longford Town 0.70 / Shamrock Rovers 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.760 / def 1.244 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.978 / def 0.995 | league avg home 0.924 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Shamrock Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Longford Town 0 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 16% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 59% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (1 meetings): Longford Town 0W | Draws 0 | Shamrock Rovers 1W.
What form are Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Longford Town's attack rating (0.76) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Longford Town's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.8%), 1-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
16%
6.20
25%
3.95
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.29
1.59
Shamrock Rovers xG
6.20
16%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
3%
30.28
29%
3.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 16.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.59 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Shamrock Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Longford Town's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
0
Draws
4
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 0, Shamrock Rovers have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2021, when Longford Town 0-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Longford Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Longford Town 0-1 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.70 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.59 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.76 / defence 1.24 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 16% | Draw 25% | Shamrock Rovers 59%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.