Finn Harps 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Finn Harps face St Patrick's Athl..

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Pre-Match Analysis

Finn Harps and St Patrick's Athl. meet at Finn Park in Premier Division (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 March 2022 at 20:00 UK time.

Form

Finn Harps (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Finn Harps have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

St Patrick's Athl.'s record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

St Patrick's Athl.'s away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Finn Harps's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) — Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, St Patrick's Athl. in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Finn Harps, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2021, ended Finn Harps 2–2 St Patrick's Athl. — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Finn Harps — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 61% versus St Patrick's Athl. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.13 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 1.066 / defence 0.993 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.091 / defence 0.854. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.034. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 39 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Finn Harps 35% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.88 | Draw 3.19 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 70% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Finn Harps 39 games, St Patrick's Athl. 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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