Finn Harps 0-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Finn Harps face Shamrock Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Shamrock Rovers travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 July 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Finn Harps stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Finn Harps, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Finn Harps at Finn Park this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Shamrock Rovers's 2.20 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Finn Harps's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Shamrock Rovers, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Finn Harps.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 1–3 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shamrock Rovers have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Finn Harps 55% versus Shamrock Rovers 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 59% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.80 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.807 / defence 1.203 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.167 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.060. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Finn Harps games / 58 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 20% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 53%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Shamrock Rovers 1.89. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Finn Harps 40% | Shamrock Rovers 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Jul 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 20% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Finn Harps 0.80 / Shamrock Rovers 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.807 / def 1.203 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.167 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Shamrock Rovers xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 1 July 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Finn Harps 0 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 20% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (6 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 1 | Shamrock Rovers 4W.
What form are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.81x the league average against Shamrock Rovers's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
20%
4.96
26%
3.80
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.29
1.49
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.96
20%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
5%
21.94
24%
4.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.1 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.49 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 13W 17D 26L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Finn Harps is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 38W 8D 10L from 56 games, 2.18 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
Venue Form
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 0.96 PPG from 28 outings (6W 9D 13L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 17W 2D 9L from 28 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.64 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 13W 17D 26L in their last 56 games (1.00 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 38W 8D 10L in their last 56 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 0.96 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Finn Harps or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Finn Harps have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Shamrock Rovers won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
1
Draws
6
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Shamrock Rovers 5-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 54%, Shamrock Rovers 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Finn Harps) and 46% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers in 39%; Finn Harps have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 43% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Finn Harps vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Finn Harps's recent games and 46% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Finn Harps 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Finn Harps 0-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.80 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.49 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Finn Harps fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.17 / defence 0.76, drawn from 56/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 20% | Draw 26% | Shamrock Rovers 53%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 59%, Shamrock Rovers 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Finn Harps (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.