Dundalk 2-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 41%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Oriel Park to take on Dundalk. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dundalk stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier Division games this season, St Patrick's Athl. have recorded 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Dundalk's 20% and St Patrick's Athl.'s 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
St Patrick's Athl. have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Dundalk's 1 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2026, ended 0–4 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. St Patrick's Athl. have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus St Patrick's Athl. 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.28 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.065 / defence 0.885 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.068 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.034. Data: 9 Dundalk games / 45 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 41% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dundalk at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dundalk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 20% | St Patrick's Athl. 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 41% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Dundalk 1.28 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.065 / def 0.885 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.068 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.98
St Patrick's Athl. xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Dundalk 2 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 41% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (8 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 2 | St Patrick's Athl. 5W.
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.06x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Dundalk's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
41%
2.46
34%
2.98
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.25
0.98
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.46
41%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.98 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dundalk come into this having played 36 games, going 5W 11D 20L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (13W 13D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
St Patrick's Athl. carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Dundalk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dundalk's home form reads 4W 5D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Dundalk are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.17 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 13W 13D 10L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 0.94 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Dundalk or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 24 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dundalk's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dundalk
3
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 24 July 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dundalk 11% BTTS, St Patrick's Athl. 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Dundalk and 39% for St Patrick's Athl..
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 44%; Dundalk have failed to score in 72% of games; St Patrick's Athl. in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Dundalk's recent matches and 33% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dundalk's recent games and 39% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.28 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.98 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 9/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 41% | Draw 34% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 28%, St Patrick's Athl. 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.