Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dundalk (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dundalk face Sligo Rovers.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 31 July 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dundalk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dundalk at Oriel Park this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sligo Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Dundalk's favour (1.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dundalk lead 5W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–2 with Sligo Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 32% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dundalk 72% and Sligo Rovers 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 60% | Sligo Rovers 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.67 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.975 / defence 1.158 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.789 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.287. Data: 25 Dundalk games / 61 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 24%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Sligo Rovers 4.17. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 70% | Sligo Rovers 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 46% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Dundalk 1.67 / Sligo Rovers 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.975 / def 1.158 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.789 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sligo Rovers xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 1 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 46% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Record (9 meetings): Dundalk 5W | Draws 1 | Sligo Rovers 3W.
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.79x) against Dundalk's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 25/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
46%
2.15
29%
3.42
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.85
1.18
Sligo Rovers xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
14%
6.98
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.18 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 9W 9D 7L from 25 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Dundalk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 5W 6D 14L across 25 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sligo Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dundalk by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sligo Rovers heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 0.88 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 9W 9D 7L in their last 25 games (1.44 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 5W 6D 14L in their last 25 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.67 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 67%, Sligo Rovers 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dundalk) and 50% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Dundalk's recent matches and 42% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Dundalk's matches and 50% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and Sligo Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Sligo Rovers finished level at 1-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.67 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.18 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.79 / defence 1.16, drawn from 25/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 46% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 24%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 60%, Sligo Rovers 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dundalk arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.