Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shamrock Rovers make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk's home record at Oriel Park: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Dundalk, 2.20 for Shamrock Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Dundalk 1W, Shamrock Rovers 3W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 50% versus Shamrock Rovers 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 51% | Shamrock Rovers 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.71 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.724 / defence 0.936 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.156 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 0.916. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Dundalk games / 52 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 37% | Shamrock Rovers 40%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Shamrock Rovers 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.70. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.70 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Dundalk's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.70 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 60% | Shamrock Rovers 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 37% | Shamrock Rovers 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Dundalk 0.71 / Shamrock Rovers 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.724 / def 0.936 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.156 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.126 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Shamrock Rovers xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Dundalk 1 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 24% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 40% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (5 meetings): Dundalk 1W | Draws 1 | Shamrock Rovers 3W.
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.72) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.16x) against Dundalk's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
24%
4.20
37%
2.73
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.70
0.99
Shamrock Rovers xG
4.20
24%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
19%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.3 | 18.1 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.0%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.99 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 1.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dundalk's recent record stands at 34W 19D 19L from 72 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 44W 19D 9L across 72 games — 2.10 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 22W 10D 4L from 36 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 15W 14D 7L across 36 trips, a 1.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shamrock Rovers's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dundalk are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.78 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 34W 19D 19L in their last 72 games (1.68 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 44W 19D 9L in their last 72 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.11 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shamrock Rovers won 0-4 on 31 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Dundalk
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Dundalk 1-0 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 58%, Shamrock Rovers 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dundalk) and 31% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 50%; Shamrock Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dundalk's recent matches and 33% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dundalk's recent games and 31% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dundalk defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.71 xG and Shamrock Rovers 0.99 xG, a combined 1.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.72 / defence 0.94 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.16 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 24% | Draw 37% | Shamrock Rovers 40%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Dundalk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 51%, Shamrock Rovers 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.68. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.