Dundalk 0-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Dundalk take on Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Oriel Park, Dundalk have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Dundalk are significantly better at Oriel Park than their overall form suggests.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Derry City are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Dundalk have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Derry City in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Derry City hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Derry City have won 3 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 49% versus Derry City 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 44% | Derry City 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 0.76 xG and Derry City 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 0.722 / defence 1.165 | Derry City attack 0.874 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 0.990. Dundalk's attack strength of 0.722 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Dundalk games / 69 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 39% | Derry City 37%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 4.17 | Draw 2.56 | Derry City 2.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 20% | Derry City 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 24% | Draw 39% | Derry City 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Dundalk 0.76 / Derry City 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 0.722 / def 1.165 | Derry City attack 0.874 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.276 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Derry City xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Derry City kick off?
Dundalk vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk 0 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Dundalk vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Derry City part of?
Dundalk vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 24% chance of winning, Derry City a 37% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Dundalk and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
Record (6 meetings): Dundalk 0W | Draws 3 | Derry City 3W.
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in?
Dundalk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Derry City (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Dundalk vs Derry City?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dundalk's attack rating (0.72) and Derry City's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.87x) against Dundalk's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.17
39%
2.59
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Dundalk xG
Total xG
1.77
1.01
Derry City xG
4.17
24%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
9%
11.42
17%
5.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.0 | 17.1 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.01 for Derry City, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Dundalk have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 22W 17D 30L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 31W 24D 14L from 69 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Derry City are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dundalk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dundalk have posted 1.53 PPG from 34 outings (14W 10D 10L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 13W 12D 9L from 34 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.49 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Derry City in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 22W 17D 30L in their last 69 games (1.20 PPG), while Derry City have gone 31W 24D 14L in their last 69 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Derry City away?
Dundalk's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.53 PPG; Derry City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Derry City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 3-0 on 15 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
5
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Dundalk 2-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Derry City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 41%, Derry City 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dundalk) and 41% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Derry City in 44%; Dundalk have failed to score in 35% of games; Derry City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Dundalk's recent matches and 41% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dundalk's recent games and 41% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Derry City tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Derry City in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dundalk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Dundalk 0-2 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 0.76 xG and Derry City 1.01 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Derry City attack 0.87 / defence 0.83, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 24% | Draw 39% | Derry City 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 44%, Derry City 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.