Derry City 0-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 39%, yet in-form Derry City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derry City vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Bohemians meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derry City have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry City have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bohemians's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Derry City's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Bohemians's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 56% versus Bohemians 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | Bohemians 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 0.76 xG and Bohemians 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.790 / defence 0.787 | Bohemians attack 1.072 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.138. Derry City's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Derry City's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Derry City games / 44 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 28% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 39%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Bohemians 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Derry City's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Derry City (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 28% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Derry City 0.76 / Bohemians 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.790 / def 0.787 | Bohemians attack 1.072 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bohemians xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Bohemians kick off?
Derry City vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Derry City 0 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Derry City vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Bohemians part of?
Derry City vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 28% chance of winning, Bohemians a 39% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Derry City and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.07x) against Derry City's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
28%
3.60
34%
2.98
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Derry City xG
Total xG
1.72
0.96
Bohemians xG
3.60
28%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.04
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 17.1 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Derry City and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Derry City and 0.96 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 32W 24D 16L from 72 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 26W 20D 26L across 72 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Derry City against 1.36 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 14W 15D 7L from 36 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 10W 11D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.46 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 64%.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 games (1.67 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Bohemians away?
Derry City's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.58 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Derry City or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Derry City
3
Draws
2
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 5, Bohemians have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Derry City 4-1 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Bohemians?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 56%, Bohemians 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Derry City) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Derry City's games and 64% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Derry City's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Bohemians tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Derry City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Derry City 0-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 0.76 xG and Bohemians 0.96 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.79 / defence 0.79 against Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 0.75, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 28% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 39%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 51% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, Bohemians 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.67 PPG, Bohemians 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.