Bohemians 0-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Drogheda United meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 August 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bohemians have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park.
Drogheda United's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Drogheda United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Drogheda United have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Bohemians, 1.40 for Drogheda United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Bohemians 1W, Drogheda United 3W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Drogheda United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Bohemians half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Drogheda United half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 48% versus Drogheda United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 38% | Drogheda United 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.42 xG and Drogheda United 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.029 / defence 0.783 | Drogheda United attack 0.864 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.067. Bohemians's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Bohemians games / 61 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 54% | Draw 27% | Drogheda United 19%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Drogheda United 5.26. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Drogheda United lead the H2H ledger, but Bohemians carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 40% | Drogheda United 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 54% | Draw 27% | Drogheda United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 39% | xG Bohemians 1.42 / Drogheda United 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.029 / def 0.783 | Drogheda United attack 0.864 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Drogheda United xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Drogheda United kick off?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 August 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Bohemians 0 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is Bohemians vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Drogheda United part of?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 54% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bohemians and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 1 | Drogheda United 3W.
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in?
Bohemians (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Drogheda United's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (0.86x) against Bohemians's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.67
19%
5.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.14
0.72
Drogheda United xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.26
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
5%
21.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.72 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians's recent record stands at 23W 15D 23L from 61 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Drogheda United, meanwhile, have gone 17W 24D 20L across 61 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Drogheda United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Bohemians against 1.23 for Drogheda United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Drogheda United's away record stands at 5W 11D 14L across 30 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.18 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Drogheda United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 23W 15D 23L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 17W 24D 20L in their last 61 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Drogheda United away?
Bohemians's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.43 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
2
Draws
4
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Drogheda United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Drogheda United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bohemians) and 53% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 53% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bohemians's recent games and 53% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Drogheda United tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Drogheda United defy the odds to beat Bohemians 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat Bohemians 0-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.42 xG and Drogheda United 0.72 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.03 / defence 0.78 against Drogheda United attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 54% | Draw 27% | Drogheda United 19%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Drogheda United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 38%, Drogheda United 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Drogheda United's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.38 PPG, Drogheda United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Drogheda United win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Drogheda United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.